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Forecasting Under Strucural Break Uncertainty

Jing Tian () and Heather Anderson

No 8/11, Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers from Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics

Abstract: This paper proposes two new weighting schemes that average forecasts using different estimation windows to account for structural change. We let the weights reflect the probability of each time point being the most-recent break point, and we use the reversed ordered Cusum test statistics to capture this intuition. The second weighting method simply imposes heavier weights on those forecasts that use more recent information. The proposed combination forecasts are evaluated using Monte Carlo techniques, and we compare them with forecasts based on other methods that try to account for structural change, including average forecasts weighted by past forecasting performance and techniques that first estimate a break point and then forecast using the post break data. Simulation results show that our proposed weighting methods often outperform the others in the presence of structural breaks. An empirical application based on a NAIRU Phillips curve model for the United States indicates that it is possible to outperform the random walk forecasting model when we employ forecasting methods that account for break uncertainty.

Keywords: Forecasting with Structural breaks; Parameter Shifts; break Uncertainty; Structural break Tests; Choice of Estimation Sample; Forecast Combinations; NAIRU Phillips Curve. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-ecm, nep-ets, nep-for and nep-ore
Date: 2011-07
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