Point and interval forecasts of age-specific fertility rates: a comparison of functional principal component methods

Han Lin Shang

No 10/12, Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers from Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics

Abstract: Accurate forecasts of age-specific fertility rates are critical for government policy, planning and decision making. With the availability of Human Fertility Database (2011), we compare the empirical accuracy of the point and interval forecasts, obtained by the approach of Hyndman and Ullah (2007) and its variants for forecasting age-specific fertility rates. The analyses are carried out using the age-specific fertility data of 15 mostly developed countries. Based on the one-step-ahead to 20-step-ahead forecast error measures, the weighted Hyndman-Ullah method provides the most accurate point and interval forecasts for forecasting age-specific fertility rates, among all the methods we investigated.

Keywords: Functional data analysis; functional principal component analysis; forecast accuracy comparison; random walk with drift; random walk; ARIMA model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C14 J11 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28 pages
Date: 2012-04-16
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem and nep-for
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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