On Time Trend of COVID-19: A Panel Data Study

Chaohua Dong, Jiti Gao, Oliver Linton and Bin Peng

No 22/20, Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers from Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics

Abstract: In this paper, we study the trending behaviour of COVID-19 data at country level, and draw attention to some existing econometric tools which are potentially helpful to understand the trend better in future studies. In our empirical study, we find that European countries overall flatten the curves more effectively compared to the other regions, while Asia & Oceania also achieve some success, but the situations are not as optimistic as in Europe. Africa and America are still facing serious challenges in terms of managing the spread of the virus and reducing the death rate. In Africa, the rate of the spread of the virus is slower and the death rate is also lower than those of the other regions. By comparing the performances of different countries, our results on the performance of different countries in managing the speed of the virus agree with Gu et al. (2020). For example, both studies agree that countries such as USA, UK and Italy perform relatively poorly; on the other hand, Australia, China, Japan, Korea, and Singapore perform relatively better.

Keywords: COVID-19; deterministic time trend; panel data; varying-coefficient (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 C54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 44
Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-sea
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Working Paper: On the Time Trend of COVID-19: A Panel Data Study (2020)
Working Paper: On Time Trend of COVID-19: A Panel Data Study (2020)
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