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Risk factors in international financial crises: early lessons from the 2008-2009 turmoil

Sebastian Dullien ()

No 1001, Competence Centre on Money, Trade, Finance and Development from Hochschule fuer Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin

Abstract: This paper analyses the global transmission of the recent economic and financial crisis as a function of macroeconomic factors such as per capita gross domestic product, current-account positions prior to the crisis, exchange-rate regimes, inflation prior to the crisis and financial openness. It finds that large current-account imbalances (both surpluses and deficits) were a risk factor in the current global economic turmoil. It also finds that countries that use currency boards have suffered much more from the crisis than countries with other exchange-rate regimes. Financial openness appears to have increased the risk of experiencing a deep recession, while higher inflation prior to the crisis seems to have mitigated its impact.

Keywords: working paper; daadpartnership; finance-and-trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 19 pages
Date: 2010-07
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Published in Berlin Working Papers on Money, Finance, Trade and Development, July 2010

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http://finance-and-trade.htw-berlin.de/fileadmin/H ... _01_2010_Dullien.pdf First version, 2010 (application/pdf)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mtf:wpaper:1001

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