Forecasting German Population Development with Monte-Carlo Methods: Further Evidence Based on a Disaggregate Model

Ulrich Blum ()

Cahiers de recherche from Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques

Abstract: The Following Paper Extends the Idea of Monte-Carlo Simulation to the Analysis of Future Population Development in the German Context. in a Disaggregate Model We Distinguish Among German and Other Ethnic Groups Because of Their Different Fertility Rates, and According to Sex and Age. the Results for the Year 2030 Suggest a Decrease of Total Population by One Third Which Is Very Stable Against Credible Variations of Birth Rates.

Keywords: Polation Forecasts; Simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 11P. pages
Date: 1987
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mtl:montde:8705

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