The Effects of Inflation and Demographic Change on Property Crime: A Structural Time-Series Approach

Richard Seals () and John Nunley ()

No 200701, Working Papers from Middle Tennessee State University, Department of Economics and Finance

Abstract: This paper extends previous empirical research on the determinants of aggregate property crime rates in two dimensions. First, we examine the effect of inflation on property crime rates. Then, using a structural time-series approach we show that it is possible to estimate consistently the effects of exogenous macroeconomic variables on aggregate property crime rates without introducing endogenous deterrence to the model. Inflation is statistically significant, positive, and persistent for all property crime rates examined. We conclude that price stability contributes considerably to the reduction of property crimes.

Keywords: property crime; inflation; female labor force participation; manufacturing employment; structural time series; unobserved component models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 J21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ure
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mts:wpaper:200701

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