Spatial and Temporal Responses to an Emissions Trading System Covering Agriculture and Forestry: Simulation Results from New Zealand

Suzi Kerr, Simon Anastasiadis (), Alex Olssen (), William Power (), Levente Timar and Wei Zhang ()
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Simon Anastasiadis: Motu Economic and Public Policy Research
Alex Olssen: Motu Economic and Public Policy Research
William Power: GNS Science
Wei Zhang: Ministry for Primary Industries

No 12_10, Working Papers from Motu Economic and Public Policy Research

Abstract: We perform simulations using the integrated Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model to analyse the effect of various New Zealand emissions trading scheme (ETS) scenarios on land-use, emissions, and output in a temporally and spatially explicit manner. We compare the impact of afforestation to the impact of other land-use change on net greenhouse gas emissions, and evaluate the importance of the forestry component of the ETS relative to the agricultural component. We also examine the effect of land-use change on the time profile of net emissions from the forestry sector. Our projections for the mid-2020s suggest that under a comprehensive ETS, sequestration associated with new planting could be significant; it may approach 20 percent of national inventory agricultural emissions in 2008. Most of this is driven by the reward for forestry rather than a liability for agricultural emissions. Finally, we present projections of future agricultural output under various policy scenarios.

Keywords: land use; land-use change; LURNZ; greenhouse-gas emissions; afforestation; forestry removals; New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme; integrated modelling; agricultural production (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q18 Q23 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 27 pages
Date: 2012-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-cmp, nep-ene and nep-env
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

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