Yield to Change: Modelling the Land-use Response to Climate-Driven Changes in Pasture Production

Levente Timar

No 16_15, Working Papers from Motu Economic and Public Policy Research

Abstract: In contrast to most economic drivers of land-use change, climate-related drivers display substantial geographic variation. Accounting for this spatial heterogeneity is important in simulations of the land-use response to climate change. I use a discrete choice model to estimate the relationship between pasture yields and rural land use. Land-use predictions from the model respond to climate change through its effects on pasture yields. This econometric model provides the foundation for the development of a new module of the Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model, the Yield Change Module. In addition to enabling simulations of overall land-use change under different climate scenarios, the module also draws on the estimation results to allocate land-use change spatially. I employ the Yield Change Module to perform illustrative mid-century and end-of-century simulations of land use in a climate scenario characterised by a high level of greenhouse gas emissions (RCP 8.5). Yield changes in this scenario lead to an expansion (by nearly 600,000 hectares) of dairy area and a fall (by over 800,000 hectares) of sheep-beef area by the end of the century. The implied rate of land-use change is modest relative to that observed in New Zealand’s recent past

Keywords: Land use; climate change; pasture production; LURNZ; Yield Change Module (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 29 pages
Date: 2016-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-dcm and nep-env
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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