Employment effects of vaccine mandate defiance

Richard Fabling

No 26_04, Motu Working Papers from Motu Economic and Public Policy Research

Abstract: We estimate employment effects of Covid-19 vaccine mandates on workers in the New Zealand education and health sectors. Unvaccinated workers are classified based on whether they comply with or defy the mandate. We identify substantial heterogeneity in outcomes across these two groups, using already-vaccinated workers as the control group in a difference-indifference regression framework. Mandate defiers experience 'permanent' labour market scarring with higher non-employment, lower wages conditional on employment, and increased mobility within New Zealand, consistent with moving to work opportunities. These effects weaken over time but persist for at least two and a half years.

Keywords: Covid-19; vaccine mandates; workers; job displacement (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I18 J63 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 27 pages
Date: 2026-03-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:mtu:wpaper:26_04

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