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Forecast with judgment and models

Francesca Monti

No 153, Working Paper Research from National Bank of Belgium

Abstract: This paper proposes a simple and model-consistent method for combining forecasts generated by structural micro-founded models and judgmental forecasts. The method also enables the judgmental forecasts to be interpreted through the lens of the model. We illustrate the proposed methodology with a real-time forecasting exercise, using a simple neo-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model and prediction from the Survey of Professional Forecasters

Keywords: forecasting; judgment; structural models; Kalman Filter; real time (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 44 pages
Date: 2008-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-dge, nep-ecm, nep-ets and nep-for
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200812-2

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