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A new approach to probabilistic surveys of professional forecasters and its application in the monetary policy context

Halina Kowalczyk, Tomasz Łyziak and Ewa Stanisławska
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Halina Kowalczyk: National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute, http://www.nbp.pl

No 142, NBP Working Papers from Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department

Abstract: In this paper we present the NBP Survey of Professional Forecasters introduced in 2011 by the National Bank of Poland. It is a new survey that allows analysis of macroeconomic forecasts of professional economists, including their probabilistic forecasts of CPI inflation, GDP growth and the NBP reference rate. In the paper we discuss in detail survey methodology, whose some elements are novel. It refers especially to the construction of probabilistic survey questions. Instead of declaring probabilities that in a certain horizon a given variable will be in pre-defined intervals, NBP SPF experts declare median and the limits of a 90-percent probability range between the 5th and 95th percentile of their subjective probability distributions. To present the benefits from the applied design of the NBP SPF, we describe the first results obtained from the NBP SPF.

JEL-codes: C82 D84 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-for and nep-mon
Date: 2013
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:142

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