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The impact of inflation expectations on Polish consumers’ spending and saving

Filip Premik and Ewa Stanisławska

No 255, NBP Working Papers from Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department

Abstract: We explore the relation between inflation expectations of consumers and their spending and saving behavior(proxied by buying and saving attitude) using micro data from Consumer Opinion Survey. This issue has gained attention in recent times due to the continuing deflation in Poland,raising concerns about consumption dynamics. The analysis suggests that inflation expectations negatively affect the saving attitude, especially in the group of consumers characterized by very good financial situation. Moreover, the role of inflation expectations has increased since the global financial crisis. The results for the buying attitude are somewhat puzzling – especially if we try to interpret them together with the results for the saving attitude – as they suggest also negative (although very weak) link to inflation expectations. We suspect that it is related to the formulation of the survey questions and attach more weight to the conclusions from analysis of the saving attitude.

Keywords: inflation expectations; consumption; savings; survey data; consumer sentiment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D12 D14 E31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac, nep-mkt and nep-tra
Date: 2017
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Journal Article: The Impact of Inflation Expectations on Polish Consumers’ Spending and Saving (2017) Downloads
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