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Structural Econometric Models in Forecasting Inflation at the National Bank of Poland

Bohdan Kłos, Ryszard Kokoszczyński, Tomasz Łyziak, Jan Przystupa () and Ewa Wróbel ()

No 31, NBP Working Papers from Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department

Abstract: The paper presents the procedure and two structural macroeconometric models used at the National Bank of Poland for producing regular quarterly inflation projections. One of the models is a small macroeconomic model based on the New Keynesian Phillips curve, the IS curve and the exchange rate equation based on uncovered interest parity with risk factors. The other, more disaggregated model, explicitly focuses on the supply side and separates the steady state from short-term adjustments.

Keywords: macroeconomic models; inflation forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C5 E37 E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:31

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