The contribution of immigration from Ukraine to economic growth in Poland
Paweł Strzelecki (),
Jakub Growiec () and
Robert Wyszynski ()
No 322, NBP Working Papers from Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department
Since 2014 Poland witnessed an unprecedented inﬂow of immigrant workers from Ukraine. Coupled with strong labour demand, this surge in labour supply provided a major contribution to Poland’s economic growth. However, due to problems with capturing immigration in Labour Force Survey (LFS) data this contribution has remained hitherto largely unaccounted in oﬃcial data. In this paper we use a range of alternative oﬃcial data sources to estimate the actual number of immigrants, and survey data on migrant characteristics, collected in four Polish cities, to estimate the eﬀective labour supply of Ukrainian immigrants in terms of productivityadjusted hours worked. We ﬁnd that the arrival of Ukrainian workers was increasing the eﬀective labour supply in Poland in 2013-18 by 0.8% per annum. Imputing this additional labour supply in a growth accounting exercise we ﬁnd that the (previously unaccounted) contribution of Ukrainian workers amounted to about 0.5 pp. per annum, i.e., about 13% of Poland’s GDP growth in 2013-18. The same ﬁgure should be subtracted from the residual contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) growth, suggesting that recent growth in Poland has been in fact much more labour-intensive than previously interpreted.
Keywords: growth accounting; immigration; labour input; Poland; Ukraine (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 F22 O15 O47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac, nep-mig and nep-tra
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Journal Article: The contribution of immigration from Ukraine to economic growth in Poland (2022)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:322
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