A fiscal outlook for Poland using Generational Accounts

Janusz Jablonowski (janusz.jablonowski@nbp.pl), Christoph Mueller and Bernd Raffelhüschen
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Janusz Jablonowski: Narodowy Bank Polski, Postal: 00-919 Warsaw, 11/21, Świętokrzyska Str., https://nbp.pl/
Christoph Mueller: Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg
Bernd Raffelhüschen: Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg

No 85, NBP Working Papers from Narodowy Bank Polski

Abstract: During the next few decades the populations of most developed countries will grow older and older as a result of the low fertility rates since the 1970s and/or the continuously increasing life expectancy. Poland, one of the biggest countries in Central Europe, will be confronted rather seriously by this development. Generational Accounting which was introduced in the early nineties, can illustrate the effects of this ageing process on a country’s fiscal situation. We show that the demographic development produces a major problem for the long term stability of Polish public finances. In particular the healthcare system deserves special attention for policy makers in the medium and long run, whilst the general pension system shall stabilise in the long term.

Keywords: Generational Accounting; Fiscal sustainability; Fiscal policy; Poland; Pension reform (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H30 H50 H55 H60 H68 J10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 107
Date: 2011
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:85

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