Confidence Intervals for the Largest Autoresgressive Root in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series

James Stock

No 105, NBER Technical Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: This paper provides asymptotic confidence intervals for the largest autoregressive root of a time series when this root is close to one. The intervals are readily constructed either graphically or using tables in the Appendix. When applied to the Nelson-Plosser (1982) data set, the main conclusion is that the confidence intervals typically are wide. The conventional emphasis on testing for whether the largest root equals one fails to convey the substantial sampling variability associated with this measure of persistence.

Date: 1991-05
Note: EFG
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Published as Journal of Monetary Economics, 28 (1991) no. 3, pp. 435-450

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Journal Article: Confidence intervals for the largest autoregressive root in U.S. macroeconomic time series (1991)
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