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Evaluating Density Forecasts

Francis Diebold (), Todd A. Gunther and Anthony S Tay ()

No 215, NBER Technical Working Papers from National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc

Abstract: We propose methods for evaluating density forecasts. We focus primarily on methods" that are applicable regardless of the particular user's loss function. We illustrate the methods" with a detailed simulation example, and then we present an application to density forecasting of" daily stock market returns. We discuss extensions for improving suboptimal density forecasts multi-step-ahead density forecast evaluation, multivariate density forecast evaluation for structural change and its relationship to density forecasting, and density forecast evaluation" with known loss function.

JEL-codes: C5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1997-10
Note: EFG
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Published as (newly titled "Evaluating Density Forecasts, with Applications to Financial Risk Management") International Economic Review, Vol. 39 (1998): 863-883.

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Related works:
Working Paper: Evaluating density forecasts (1997) Downloads
Working Paper: Evaluating Density Forecasts (1997) Downloads
Working Paper: Evaluating Density Forecasts Downloads
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