NBER Working Papers

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34820: Are Government Bonds Safe in Times of War and Pandemic?

Zhengyang Jiang, Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh and Mindy Xiaolan

34819: Financial Incentives, Health Screening, and Selection into Mental Health Care: Experimental Evidence from College Students in India

Emily Breza, Kevin Carney, Vijaya Raghavan, Kailash Rajah, Thara Rangaswamy, Gautam Rao, Frank Schilbach, Sobia Shadbar and James Stratton

34818: Residential Segregation and Unequal Access to Local Public Services in India: Evidence from 1.5m Neighborhoods

Sam Asher, Kritarth Jha, Paul Novosad, Anjali Adukia and Brandon Tan

34817: International Currency Dominance

Joseph Abadi, Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde and Daniel Sanches

34816: Extractive Taxation and the French Revolution

Tommaso Giommoni, Gabriel Loumeau and Marco Tabellini

34815: Screen More, Sell Later: Screening and Dynamic Signaling in the Mortgage Market

Manuel Adelino, Bin Wei and Feng Zhao

34814: Interest Rates and Equity Valuations

Niels Joachim Gormsen and Eben Lazarus

34813: The Politics of AI

Nicholas Bloom and Christos Makridis

34812: Early Learning Across Decades: Advances in Measuring Head Start Effectiveness

Chloe Gibbs

34811: Field Experiments in the Science of Science: Lessons from Peer Review and the Evaluation of New Knowledge

Kevin Boudreau

34810: Searching for Fish in Trees (緣木求魚)? Economic Development when Context Matters

Jacob Moscona, Nathan Nunn and James Robinson

34809: Progress or Backsliding? Changes in the Gender Wage Gap for Business Professionals

Ann Harrison, Laura J. Kray and Noor Sethi

34808: AI Personality Extraction from Faces: Labor Market Implications

Marius Guenzel, Shimon Kogan, Marina Niessner and Kelly Shue

34807: AI, Opinion Ecosystems, and Finance

David Hirshleifer, Lin Peng, Qiguang Wang, Weichen Zhang and Xiaoyan Zhang

34806: Heaven or Earth? The Evolving Role of Global Shocks for Domestic Monetary Policy

Kristin Forbes, Jongrim Ha and Ayhan Kose

34805: School Vaping Bans and Youth E-Cigarette Use

Dhaval Dave, Jooyoung Kim, Nikolaos Prodromidis and Joseph J. Sabia

34804: Aggregate Employment and the Rise of Services across Time and Countries

Margarida Duarte and Diego Restuccia

34803: Inferring Prices from Quantities

David Argente, Chang-Tai Hsieh and Munseob Lee

34802: Competition and Fraud in Health Care

Renuka M. Diwan, Paul Eliason, Riley League, Jetson Leder-Luis, Ryan McDevitt and James W. Roberts

34801: Loan-funded Loans: Equity-like Liabilities inside Bank Holding Companies

Jennie Bai, Murillo Campello and Pradeep Muthukrishnan

34800: Class Mobility in the Era of Rising Inequality: A Synthetic Dynasty Analysis

Geoffrey Wodtke, Weiqi Wang, Kristina Butaeva and Steven Durlauf

34799: The Effect of Exposure: Evidence from Spatial Choices in Nairobi

Joshua T. Dean, Gabriel Kreindler and Oluchi Mbonu

34798: Indebted Supply and Monetary Policy: A Theory of Financial Dominance

Viral Acharya, Guillaume Plantin and Olivier Wang

34797: Contract Design and Insurance Demand

Jing Cai

34796: Clustered Network Connectedness: A New Measurement Framework, with Application to Global Equity Markets

Bastien Buchwalter, Francis Diebold and Kamil Yilmaz

34795: Younger Firms and CEOs Allow More Work from Home

Cevat Giray Aksoy, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, Katelyn Cranney, Steven Davis, Mathias Dolls and Pablo Zárate

34794: ICE Arrests across Trump's First and Second Terms: Variation in Targeting, Method, and Geography

Chloe East, Caitlin Patler and Elizabeth Cox

34793: The H-1B Wage Gap, Visa Fees, and Employer Demand

George Borjas

34792: American Investment in Chinese Renminbi

Bruno Cavani, Christopher Clayton, Amanda Dos Santos, Matteo Maggiori and Jesse Schreger

34791: Is Immigration Good for Health? The Effect of Immigration on Older Adult Mortality in the United States

David C. Grabowski, Jonathan Gruber and Brian E. McGarry

34790: The Economic Impact of Mass Deportations

Javier Cravino, Andrei Levchenko, Francesc Ortega and Nitya Pandalai-Nayar

34789: Geopolitics in the Evaluation of International Scientific Collaboration

Alexander C. Furnas, Ruixue Jia, Margaret E. Roberts and Dashun Wang

34788: Coca’s Return and the American Overdose Fallout

Xinming Du, Benjamin Hansen, Shan Zhang and Eric Zou

34787: Protest Matters: The Effects of Protests on Economic Redistribution

Belinda Archibong, Chinemelu Okafor, Evans S. Osabuohien and Tom Moerenhout

34786: Well-being Increases in Age Among Workers: Evidence From 103 Countries

David Blanchflower and Alex Bryson

34785: Trade and US Inequality in the Tokyo Round

Andrew Greenland, James Lake and John Lopresti

34784: Changing Culture and Norms in Developing Countries

Eliana La Ferrara and David Yanagizawa-Drott

34783: Banking on Inattention

Xu Lu and Lingxuan Wu

34782: Managers and the Cultural Transmission of Gender Norms

Virginia Minni, Kieu-Trang Nguyen, Heather Sarsons and Carla Srebot

34781: Enhancing Worker Productivity Without Automating Tasks: A Different Approach to AI and the Task-Based Model

Ajay Agrawal, John McHale and Alexander Oettl

34780: Optimal Use of Preferences in Artificial Intelligence Algorithms

Joshua Gans

34779: A.I. and Our Economic Future

Charles Jones

34778: The Effect of Charter Schools on Identification, Service Provision, and Achievement of Students with Disabilities

Scott Imberman and Andrew S. Johnson

34777: AI and the Quantity and Quality of Creative Products: Have LLMs Boosted Creation of Valuable Books?

Imke Reimers and Joel Waldfogel

34776: Audit Centralization and Audit Quality: Evidence from Chinese Cities

Jian Chu, Raymond Fisman, Yongxiang Wang and Maoliang Ye

34775: Immigration Restrictions and Natives' Intergenerational Mobility: Evidence from the 1920s US Quota Acts

James Feigenbaum, Yi-Ju Hung, Marco Tabellini and Monia Tomasella

34774: Estimating Demand Systems with Bidding Data

Jason Allen, Jakub Kastl and Milena Wittwer

34773: How do Foundations Help Charities (Beyond Giving them Money)?

Daniel Hungerman, Teresa Harrison and Sherry X. Li

34772: Stress Relief? Externalities from Specialty Hospital Entry

Daniel R. Arnold, Michael R. Richards and Christopher Whaley

34771: Dynamic Selection and the Puzzle of Slow Climate Change Adaptation in U.S. Agriculture

Robert Huang and Matthew Kahn

34770: The Life-cycle of Concentrated Industries

Martin Beraja and Francisco Buera

34769: Why Does Height Pay? Evidence from the Kenya Life Panel Survey

Wilson King, Edward Miguel and Michael Walker

34768: Welfare Added? Optimal Teacher Assignment with Value-Added Measures

Tanner S. Eastmond, Michael Ricks, Julian Betts and Nathan Mather

34767: Life-Cycle Effects of Women's Education on their Careers and Children

Na'ama Shenhav and Danielle Sandler

34766: Competition, Procurement and Learning-By-Doing in the Space Launch Industry

Ruibing Su, Chenyu Yang and Andrew Sweeting

34765: The Future of Monetarism after Milton Friedman

Michael Bordo

34764: How Does Tort Reform Affect Health Care Delivery?

Charles Courtemanche and Joseph Garuccio

34763: Driving Innovation: The Policy Tools Powering Electric Vehicle Technological Inventions

Jingni Zhang and David Popp

34762: The Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Policy Uncertainty

Konstantinos Gavriilidis, Diego Känzig, Ramya Raghavan and James Stock

34761: Clientelism: How It Works, Why It Persists and How to Break It

Jimmy Graham, Horacio Larreguy and Pablo Querubin

34760: Mapping Technological Trajectories: Evidence from Two Centuries of Patent Data

Antonin Bergeaud, Ruveyda Nur Gozen and John van Reenen

34759: Poverty and Dependency in the United States, 1939–2023

Richard Burkhauser and Kevin Corinth

34758: The Redistributive Effects of Federal Medicaid Outlays Across Counties: Evidence from the ACA

Laura Montenovo, Kosali Simon and Coady Wing

34757: What Happens When Dating Goes Online? Evidence from U.S. Marriage Markets and Health Outcomes

Daniel Ershov, Jessica Fong and Pinar Yildirim

34756: Wedges: A Microeconomic Perspective on Misallocation

Lauren F. Bergquist, Danial Lashkari and Eric Verhoogen

34755: Learning to Quit? A Multi-Year, Multi-Site Field Experiment with Innovation-Driven Entrepreneurs

Esther Bailey, Daniel Fehder, Eric Floyd, Yael Hochberg and Daniel J. Lee

34754: The Macroeconomic Effects of Neighborhood Policies: a Dynamic Analysis

Alessandra Fogli, Veronica Guerrieri, Mark Ponder and Marta Prato

34753: Psychology and Development: Applications from Cognitive and Social Psychology

Emily Breza and Supreet Kaur

34752: The Response of Debtors to Rate Changes

Andreas Fuster, Virginia Gianinazzi, Andreas Hackethal, Philip Schnorpfeil and Michael Weber

34751: Industrial Activity, State Capacity, and Deforestation: Evidence from Brazil

Daniel Da Mata, Mario Dotta and Edson Severnini

34750: Effective and Scalable Programs to Facilitate Labor Market Transitions for Women in Technology

Susan Athey and Emil Palikot

34749: Understanding Latin America’s Fertility Decline: Age, Education, and Cohort Dynamics

Milagros Onofri, Inés Berniell, Raquel Fernandez and Azul Menduiña

34748: A Macroeconomic Perspective on Stock Market Valuation Ratios

Andrew Atkeson, Jonathan Heathcote and Fabrizio Perri

34747: A Few Bad Apples? Academic Dishonesty, Political Selection, and Institutional Performance in China

Zhuang Liu, Wenwei Peng and Shaoda Wang

34746: Scaling Sustainable Investing in Emerging and Developing Economies: Frictions and Opportunities

Caroline Flammer, Thomas Giroux and Geoffrey Heal

34745: Behavioral Economics of AI: LLM Biases and Corrections

Pietro Bini, Lin Cong, Xing Huang and Lawrence Jin

34744: The United States as an Active Industrial Policy Nation

Jiandong Ju, Yuankun Li and Shang-Jin Wei

34743: Consumer Demand and Market Competition with Time-Intensive Goods

Joseph Goodman, Lancelot Henry de Frahan, Justin Holz, John List, Niall MacMenamin, Evan C. McKay, Magne Mogstad, Sally Sadoff and Hal Sider

34742: The Dynamics of Retail Deposit Balances

Bronson Argyle, Benjamin Iverson, Jason Kotter, Taylor D. Nadauld and Christopher Palmer

34741: The Demand for Grandchildren: Children as Family Public Goods and Implications for Cooperative Bargaining

Janice Compton and Robert Pollak

34740: Current Account Deficits and the Welfare of Future Generations

Christopher Phelan

34739: Is the Environmental Exposure Gap Shrinking? Evidence from an Extreme Multi-exposure Index

Glenn Sheriff, Danae Hernandez-Cortes, Chakraborty Tc and Theresa DeConcini

34738: The Informational Role of Emission Markets: Prices vs Quantities with Dispersed Information About Externalities

Derek Lemoine

34737: Measuring the Growth of Skills

James J. Heckman, Haihan Tian, Zijian Zhang and Jin Zhou

34736: College Major Choice, Payoffs, and Gender Gaps

Christopher Campos, Pablo Muñoz, Alonso Bucarey and Dante Contreras

34735: Economic Development and the Environment

B. Kelsey Jack and Nicholas Ryan

34734: War and Democratic Backsliding

Efraim Benmelech and Joao Monteiro

34733: Does Generative AI Crowd Out Human Creators? Evidence from Pixiv

Sueyoul Kim, Ginger Zhe Jin and Eungik Lee

34732: The Twenty-four Hour Economy or Rolled-up Sidewalks: Trends in Work Timing and Their Causes

Jeff Biddle and Daniel Hamermesh

34731: Salience and the Elasticity of Taxable Income: Evidence from Top-bracket Tax Reforms

Xavier Dufour, Pierre-Carl Michaud and Michael Smart

34730: Technology and Economic Development

Daron Acemoglu, Ufuk Akcigit and Simon Johnson

34729: No Taxation Without Administration: Bringing The State Back Into The Public Finance Of Developing Countries

Anders Jensen and Jonathan L. Weigel

34728: Global Trade, Tariff Uncertainty and the U.S. Dollar

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Can Soylu and Muhammed A. Yildirim

34727: Rational Disagreement

Nabil Al-Najjar and Harald Uhlig

34726: The Contribution of College Majors to Gender and Racial Earnings Differences

Scott Imberman, Michael Lovenheim, Patrick Massey, Kevin Stange and Rodney J. Andrews

34725: Senior Migration, Local Economic Development and Spatial Concentration

Marco A. Badilla Maroto, Benjamin Faber, Antoine B. Levy and Mathilde Muñoz

34724: Missing Black Men? The Impact of Non-Reporting on Estimates of Labor Market Outcomes for Black Men

Adrienne Sabety and Ariella K. Spitzer

34723: Modeling the Labor Implications of the Energy Transition

Marc Hafstead and Roberton Williams

34722: Speculative Growth and the AI "Bubble"

Ricardo Caballero

34721: Migration and the Making of the English Middle Class

Vasiliki Fouka and Theo Serlin