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Investigating Business Cycle Synchronization in West Africa

Simeon Coleman ()

NBS Discussion Papers in Economics from Economics, Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University

Abstract: This paper contributes to the discussion on the long term sustainability of the embryonic second monetary union in Africa, the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ). We analyse the level of economic and monetary integration in West Africa by analysing the degree of growth cycle synchronisation between five candidate countries over the past thirty years. Our empirical approach improves on the standard Pearson Correlation between trend and cyclical components of GDP by analyzing a measure of co-movement at higher frequencies between computed z-scores for all possible pairings of the candidate countries. Our results indicate a lack of a consistent pattern of synchronized growth cycles, which raises concerns about the economic sustainability of the WAMZ, as it implies that members may face significant stabilisation costs. Some policy implications are discussed.

Keywords: Business cycles; monetary unions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E61 F42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-afr and nep-mac
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http://www.ntu.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/3 ... n-in-West-Africa.pdf First version, 2011 (application/pdf)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nbs:wpaper:2011/01

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