A STOCHASTIC FORECAST MODEL FOR JAPAN'S POPULATION

Yoichi Okita, Wade Pfau and Long Giang
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Yoichi Okita: National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies

No 09-06, GRIPS Discussion Papers from National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies

Abstract: Obtaining appropriate forecasts for the future population is a vital component of public policy analysis for issues ranging from government budgets to pension systems. Traditionally, demographic forecasters rely on a deterministic approach with various scenarios informed by expert opinion. This approach has been widely criticized, and we apply an alternative stochastic modeling framework that can provide a probability distribution for forecasts of the Japanese population. We find the potential for much greater variability in the future demographic situation for Japan than implied by existing deterministic forecasts. This demands greater flexibility from policy makers when confronting population aging issues.

Keywords: stochastic population forecasts; Japan; Lee-Carter method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 J1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26 pages
Date: 2009-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-age, nep-ecm and nep-for
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Journal Article: A Stochastic Forecast Model for Japan's Population (2011)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ngi:dpaper:09-06

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