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Do wildfires burn tourism intentions? The case of Portugal

João Cerejeira (), Rita Sousa, Carolina Bernardo and António Bento-Gonçalves
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João Cerejeira: NIPE/Center for Research in Economics and Management, University of Minho, Portugal; and CIPES – Centre for Research in Higher Education Policies
Carolina Bernardo: University of Minho, Portugal
António Bento-Gonçalves: CECS – Communication and Society Research Centre, University of Minho

No 01/2023, NIPE Working Papers from NIPE - Universidade do Minho

Abstract: Fire intensity and size incite visitation decrease and recreational losses, relevant tourism variables for European economies. As a result of climate change, this reality is becoming more evident. Due to significant gaps in analyzing the relationship between wildfires and tourism demand, this paper aims to explain how tourism demand reacts to wildfires in Portugal. We use a novel approach in these studies and estimate a spatial econometric model to analyze the relationship between total burned areas and overnight stays in a touristic establishment in a given municipality and its neighbouring municipalities. Our results show that wildfires negatively affect the overnight stays in the same location but also cause spillover effects in neighbouring municipalities. Also, the wildfire occurrences are positively related to the number of overnight stays after three months, suggesting a delay in tourism activities.

Keywords: tourism; wildfires; spatial econometrics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: L83 O13 Q54 Q56 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env, nep-eur, nep-res, nep-tur and nep-ure
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