The Portuguese real exchange rate, 1995-2010: competitiveness or price effects?
Miguel de Freitas () and
Miguel de Faria e Castro ()
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Miguel de Faria e Castro: New York University
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Miguel Faria-e-Castro
No 12/2014, NIPE Working Papers from NIPE - Universidade do Minho
We disentangle the extent to which the real exchange rate appreciation in Portugal during 1995-2010 reflected the emergence of wage-productivity misalignments or, instead, changes in the relative price of tradable and non-tradable goods. The available data suggests that the latter effect dominated at the aggregate level. The evidence is consistent with the view that the external imbalance that characterized the Portuguese economy during the 1990s and early 2000s was triggered by the liberalization of capital flows, and not by dysfunctional wage setting institutions. Using the Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate approach, we find that recent oil price shocks played an important role in explaining the real exchange rate overvaluation in Portugal.Classification-JEL:
Keywords: real exchange rate; FERER; unit labor costs (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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