Integrated Modelling of European Migration: Background, specification and results

James Raymer (), Jonathan J. Forster, Peter W.F Smith, Jakub Bijak and Arkadiusz Wiśniowski
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James Raymer: University of Southampton
Jonathan J. Forster: University of Southampton
Peter W.F Smith: University of Southampton
Jakub Bijak: University of Southampton
Arkadiusz Wiśniowski: University of Southampton

No 2012004, Norface Discussion Paper Series from Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London

Abstract: The aims of this paper are to present the background and specification of the Integrated Modelling of European Migration (IMEM) model. Currently, international migration data are collected by individual countries with separate collection systems and designs. This creates problems when attempting to understand or predict population movements between countries as the reported data are inconsistent in terms of their availability, definitions and quality. Rather than wait for countries to harmonise their migration data collection and reporting systems, we propose a model to overcome the limitations of the various data sources. In particular, we propose a Bayesian model for harmonising and correcting the inadequacies in the available data and for estimating the completely missing flows. The focus is on estimating recent international migration flows amongst countries in the European Union (EU) and European Free Trade Association (EFTA) from 2002 to 2008, using data collected by Eurostat and other national and international institutions. We also include additional information provided by experts on the effects of undercount, measurement and accuracy. The methodology is integrated and capable of providing a synthetic data base with measures of uncertainty for international migration flows and other model parameters.

Date: 2012-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eur
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