Evolution of Consistent Conjectures in Semi-Aggregative Representation of Games, with Applications to Public Good Games and Contests

Alex Possajennikov ()

No 2016-08, Discussion Papers from The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham

Abstract: In a semi-aggregative representation of a game, the payoff of a player depends on a player's own strategy and on a personalized aggregate of all players' strategies. Suppose that each player has a conjecture about the reaction of the personalized aggregate to a change in the player's own strategy. The players play an equilibrium given their conjectures, and evolution selects conjectures that lead to a higher payoff in such an equilibrium. Considering one player role, I show that for any conjectures of the other players, only conjectures that are consistent can be evolutionarily stable, where consistency means that the conjecture is, to a first approximation, correct at equilibrium. I illustrate this result in public good games and contests.

Keywords: semi-aggregative games; conjectural variations; evolutionary stability; public good games; contests (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-gth, nep-hpe and nep-mic
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