Reverse Bayesianism and Act Independence
David Kelsey and
Additional contact information
Surajeet Chakravarty: University of Exeter
No 2022-06, Discussion Papers from The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham
Karni and Viero (2013) propose a model of belief revision under growing awarenessÂ— - reverse Bayesianism - which posits that as a person becomes aware of new acts, consequences, or act-consequence links, she revises her beliefs over an expanded state space in a way that preserves the relative likelihoods of events in the original state space. A key feature of the model is that reverse Bayesianism does not fully determine the revised probability distribution. We provide an assumptionÂ— - act independence - that imposes additional restrictions on reverse Bayesian belief revision. We show that with act independence knowledge of the probabilities of the new act events in the expanded state space is sufficient to fully determine the revised probability distribution in each case of growing awareness. We also explore what additional knowledge is required for reverse Bayesianism to pin down the revised probabilities without act independence.
Keywords: Keywords: act independence; reverse Bayesianism; unawareness (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mic
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nottingham.ac.uk/cedex/documents/paper ... on-paper-2022-06.pdf (application/pdf)
Journal Article: Reverse Bayesianism and act independence (2022)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:not:notcdx:2022-06
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Discussion Papers from The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham School of Economics University of Nottingham University Park Nottingham NG7 2RD. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Jose V Guinot Saporta ().