Decision-Making in Hard Times: What is a Recession, Why Do We Care and When Do We Know We Are in One?

Kevin Lee () and Kalvinder Shields

Discussion Papers from University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM)

Abstract: Defining a recessionary event as one which impacts adversely on individuals’ economic well-being, the paper argues that recession is a multi-faceted phenomenon whose meaning differs from person to person as it impacts on their decision-making in real time. It argues that recession is best represented through the calculation of the nowcast of recession event probabilities. A variety of such probabilities are produced using a real-time data set for the US for the period, focusing on the likelihood of various recessionary events through 1986q1-2008q4 and on prospects beyond the end of the sample.

Keywords: Recession; Probability Forecasts; Real Time. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010-08
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nottingham.ac.uk/cfcm/documents/papers/10-08.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:not:notcfc:10/08

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Discussion Papers from University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM) School of Economics University of Nottingham University Park Nottingham NG7 2RD. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Hilary Hughes ().