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Early warnings of inflation in India

Rudrani Bhattacharya (), Ila Patnaik () and Ajay Shah ()
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Rudrani Bhattacharya: National Institute of Public Finance and Policy
Ila Patnaik: National Institute of Public Finance and Policy

Working Papers from National Institute of Public Finance and Policy

Abstract: In India, year-on-year percentage changes of price indexes are widely used as the measure of inflation. In terms of monthly data, each observation of a one-year change in inflation is the sum of twelve one month changes. This suggests that better information about inflationary pressures can be obtained using point-on-point monthly changes. This requires seasonal adjustment. We apply standard seasonal adjustment procedures in order to obtain a point-on-point seasonally adjusted monthly time-series of inflation in India. In three interesting high inflation episodes { 1994-95, 2007 and 2008 - we find that this data yields a faster and better understanding of inflationary pressures.

New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cwa, nep-mac and nep-mon
Date: 2008-08
Note: Working Paper 54, 2008
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