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Dating Business Cycles in India

Radhika Pandey (), Ila Patnaik () and Ajay Shah ()
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Ila Patnaik: National Institute of Public Finance and Policy

Working Papers from National Institute of Public Finance and Policy

Abstract: This paper presents a chronology of Indian business cycle in the post-reform period. The period before reforms primarily saw monsoon cycles. We find three episodes of recession in the post-reform period: 1999Q4 to 2003Q1, 2007Q2 to 2009Q3, and 2011Q2 to 2012Q4. We find that the average duration of expansion is 12 quarters and the average duration of recession is 9 quarters. The diversity in duration of expansion is seen to be 0.34 while the diversity in duration of recession is 0.31. We find that the amplitude of recession is relatively more diverse at 0.45 while the diversity in amplitude of expansion is 0.38.

Keywords: Business Cycle; Growth Cycle; Detrending; Stabilisation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E66 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-sog
Date: 2016-09
Note: Working Paper 175, 2016
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Journal Article: Dating business cycles in India (2017) Downloads
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