Impact of Covid-19 on the Indian Economy: An Analysis of Fiscal Scenarios

Ila Patnaik and Rajeswari Sengupta

Working Papers from National Institute of Public Finance and Policy

Abstract: Amidst the economic slowdown triggered by the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic in India there have been many demands for the government to announce a large fiscal stimulus to support the economy. Economic growth and tax revenues remain uncertain in 2020-21 making it challenging for the government to finance any addition to the fiscal deficit. In this paper we work out alternative scenarios of fiscal deficit for 2020-21. We find that in our baseline scenario, assuming a 5% contraction in real GDP and a 14.4% contraction in net tax revenue, fiscal deficit of the central government will be 6.2% of GDP.

Keywords: Fiscal deficit; Covid-19; Fiscal projections; Government borrowing; Tax revenue (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E6 H2 H5 H6 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 16
Date: 2020-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
Note: Working Paper 319, 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.nipfp.org.in/media/medialibrary/2020/09/WP_319_2020.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Impact of Covid-19 on Indian economy: An Analysis of fiscal scenarios (2020)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:npf:wpaper:20/319

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Papers from National Institute of Public Finance and Policy
Bibliographic data for series maintained by S.Siva Chidambaram ( this e-mail address is bad, please contact ).