Modelling Demographic Events in the Microsimulation Model DESTINIE

M. Duée
Additional contact information
M. Duée: Insee

Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers from Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques

Abstract: This paper presents a new modelling of demographic events in the microsimulation model Destinie: union formations, union disruptions and births. The previous modelling was based on the 1997 Insee Survey on Young People and Job Histories, whose sample was of limited size (20 000 persons aged 19 to 45). This new version is based on the 1999 Family History Survey whose sample is large enough (280 000 persons aged at least 18) to take into account more covariates than before. In particular we systematically introduce age as a covariate; the age at leaving school, the only variable that represents social heterogeneity in the model Destinie, is also used more systematically than in the previous version. The probabilities are estimated between 1995 and 1999 using logistic regressions. As this period does not necessary correspond to a steady state, we have to adjust the intercepts in the equations so that simulations are consistent with some aggregates. In particular, simulations are consistent with a fertility of 1.9 children per woman, which corresponds to the observed fertility since 2000, and an average age at birth of 30 years. For women, simulations lead to satisfactory results for completed fertility, fertility rate by age and marital status at each age. Thus, the marital status appears to be a valid covariate for modelling transitions on the labour market. Results for men remain less satisfactory.

Keywords: microsimulation; demographic trends; fertility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C15 J12 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2005
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.bnsp.insee.fr/ark:/12148/bc6p06zr267/f1.pdf Document de travail de la DESE numéro G2005-15 (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nse:doctra:g2005-15

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers from Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by INSEE ().