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Modelling and forecasting wind drought

Gunnar Bårdsen (), Stan Hurn () and Kenneth Lindsay ()
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Kenneth Lindsay: Department of Mathematics, University of Glasgow, Scotland

Working Paper Series from Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology

Abstract: The paper examines several simple dynamic probit models in terms of their usefulness in forecasting wind drought, defined as 5 or more hours of wind speed less than 3.5 m/sec during the busiest periods of the day for the demand for electricity. Dynamic probit models work well in terms of their ability to forecast and are robust by comparison with an approach based on modelling counts. There seems little advantage to moving to modelling counts unless there is added advantage to market participants in knowing the actual prediction for the number of hours of low wind. Future research should focus on the problem of identifying the first day in a series of days with slow winds, and the first day of reasonable wind after a spell of drought. Both the probit and count models could be improved in this regard.

JEL-codes: C22 G00 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 22 pages
Date: 2019-11-15
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene, nep-for and nep-ore
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http://www.svt.ntnu.no/ISO/WP/2019/6_19.pdf (application/pdf)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nst:samfok:18219

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