A Joint Chow Test for Structural Instability

Bent Nielsen and Andrew Whitby

No 2012-W07, Economics Papers from Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford

Abstract: The classical Chow (1960) test for structural instability requires strictly exogenous regressors and a break-point speci ed in advance. In this paper we consider two generalisations, the 1-step recursive Chow test (based on the sequence of studentized recursive residuals) and its supremum counterpart, which relax these requirements. We use results on strong consistency of regression estimators to show that the 1-step test is appropriate for stationary, unit root or explosive processes modelled in the autoregressive distributed lags (ADL) framework. We then use results in extreme value theory to develop a new supremum version of the test, suitable for formal testing of structural instability with an unknown break-point. The test assumes normality of errors, and is intended to be used in situations where this can either be assumed or established empirically.

Pages: 20 pages
Date: 2012-06-25
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm
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Journal Article: A Joint Chow Test for Structural Instability (2015)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nuf:econwp:1207

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