Inference and forecasting in the age-period-cohort model with unknown exposure with an application to mesothelioma mortality

María Dolores Martínez Miranda (), Bent Nielsen and Jens Perch Nielsen ()
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María Dolores Martínez Miranda: University of Granada & Cass Business School, London
Jens Perch Nielsen: Cass Business School, London

No 2013-W05, Economics Papers from Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford

Abstract: It is of considerable interest to forecast future mesothelioma mortality. No measures for exposure are available so it is not straight forward to apply a doseresponse model. It is proposed to model the counts of deaths directly using a Poisson regression with an age-period-cohort structure, but without offset. Traditionally the age-period-cohort is viewed to suffer from an identification problem. It is shown how to re-parameterize the model in terms of freely varying parameters, so as to avoid this problem. It is shown how to conduct inference and how to construct distribution forecasts.

Pages: 27 pages
Date: 2013-03-08
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Related works:
Journal Article: Inference and forecasting in the age–period–cohort model with unknown exposure with an application to mesothelioma mortality (2015)
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