A simple benchmark for mesothelioma projection for Great Britain

Bent Nielsen (), María Dolores Martínez-Miranda and Jens Perch Nielsen
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Bent Nielsen: Nuffield College, Oxford
María Dolores Martínez-Miranda: Department of Statistics and Operations Research, University of Granada, Granada, Spain
Jens Perch Nielsen: Cass Business School, London

No 2016-W03, Economics Papers from Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford

Abstract: Background: It is of considerable interest to forecast the future burden of mesothelioma mortality. Data on deaths are available, whereas no measure of asbestos exposure is available. Methods. We compare two Poisson models: a response-only model with an age-cohort specification and a multinomial model with epidemiologically motivated frequencies. Results. The response-only model has 5% higher peak mortality than the dose-response model.The former performs slightly better in out-of-sample comparison. Conclusion. Mortality is predicted to peak at about 2100 deaths around 2017 among males in cohorts until 1966 and below 90 years of age. The response-only model is a simple benchmark that forecasts just as well as more complicated models.

Pages: 5 pages
Date: 2016-06-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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