The Impact of Climate Change on U.S. Agriculture: New Evidence on the Role of Heterogeneity and Adaptation
Michael Keane () and
Timothy Neal ()
No 2017-W03, Economics Papers from Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford
This paper investigates the impact of climate change on the productivity of crop production using U.S. county-level yield and weather data between 1950 and 2015. It finds that the pooled estimators used in previous studies underestimate the sensitivity of crops to high temperatures by ignoring slope heterogeneity, and underestimate the damage of future climate change on yield. Furthermore, explicitly modelling this heterogeneity provides a natural approach to measuring the degree of adaptation to climate change in the data. It concludes with evidence that further adaptation may mitigate up to half of the substantial losses to crop productivity forecast by 2050
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