Hempel, Good and Bayes

Itzhak Gilboa

No 1045, Discussion Papers from Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science

Abstract: This paper analyzes some decision/belief paradoxes from a Bayesian viewpoint, focusing on Hempel's "paradox of confirmation" and Good's variation of it. It is shown that a straightforward Bayesian analysis revolves the paradoxes discussed. These exampmles are used to support the view tha twhat the Bayesian paradigm does best is to provide a coherent and intuitive representation of belief.

Date: 1993-05
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