Measuring Forecast Uncertainty by Disagreement: The Missing Link

Kajal Lahiri and Xuguang Sheng

Discussion Papers from University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics

Abstract: Using a standard decomposition of forecasts errors into common and idiosyncratic shocks, we show that aggregate forecast uncertainty can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the perceived variability of future aggregate shocks. Thus, the reliability of disagreement as a proxy for uncertainty will be determined by the stability of the forecasting environment, and the length of the forecast horizon. Using density forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we find direct evidence in support of our hypothesis. Our results support the use of GARCH-type models, rather than the ex post squared errors in consensus forecasts, to estimate the ex ante variability of aggregate shocks as a component of aggregate uncertainty.

Date: 2009
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-ecm, nep-ets and nep-for
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Journal Article: Measuring forecast uncertainty by disagreement: The missing link (2010)
Working Paper: Measuring Forecast Uncertainty by Disagreement: The Missing Link (2008)
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