The role of demographics and migration for the future of economic growth in China

Juan Carlos Conesa and Yan Wang

Department of Economics Working Papers from Stony Brook University, Department of Economics

Abstract: China's real GDP has been growing by almost 10 percent a year for the last three decades. For how long should we expect this spectacularly high growth to continue? We evaluate in a quantitative two sector model with segmented labor markets and nancial frictions the prospects for China's future growth under different policy scenarios. In our model the high growth rate observed in China since the early 1990s is fueled by the large increase in urban labor supply, because of rural-urban migration, and the emergence of private enterprises that absorb those migrant workers. Our simulations suggest that the rapid aging of its population will signicantly decelerate urban labor force and economic growth starting around 2040. In a counterfactual exercise we show that substantial relaxation of labor market segmentation and nancial constraints faced by private enterprises cannot compensate for that deceleration.

Date: 2020
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna, nep-dge, nep-fdg, nep-mig, nep-tra and nep-ure
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.stonybrook.edu/commcms/economics/resea ... ChinaGrowth_2008.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: The role of demographics and migration for the future of economic growth in China (2022)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nys:sunysb:20-08

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Department of Economics Working Papers from Stony Brook University, Department of Economics Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().