The Forecasting and Policy System: preparing economic projections

Aaron Drew () and Ben Hunt
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Ben Hunt: Reserve Bank of New Zealand, http://www.rbnz.govt.nz

No G98/7, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series from Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Abstract: This paper outlines how the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Forecasting and Policy System (FPS) is used to prepare the quarterly economic projections. In addition to a very brief overview of the system, the paper focuses on four key issues. First, the current methodology for incorporating a time-varying equilibrium path for the economy is presented. Second, the process for building up the central scenario through the application of judgement is outlined. Third, the use of alternative scenarios for testing the implications of key assumptions embodied in the central scenario is discussed. Finally, the technique employed to examine the implications that unforseen shocks have for the projections is discussed.

Pages: 34p
Date: 1998-10
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (18)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:1998/07

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