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Explaining Movements in the NZ Dollar - Central Bank Communication and the Surprise Element in Monetary Policy?

Ozer Karagedikli () and Pierre Siklos ()

No DP2008/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series from Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Abstract: We conduct a high frequency event analysis to estimate the effects of monetary policy surprises, data surprises, and central bank verbal statements on the New Zealand-US dollar and the New Zealand-Australian dollar exchange rates. We find data surprises and monetary policy surprises have significant and large effects on exchange rate movements. More importantly, RBNZ interest rate decisions have a largely permanent impact on the exchange rate. Significantly, the impact of the published interest rate track seems to explain some 10 per cent additional variation in the exchange rate.

JEL-codes: E43 E44 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-ifn, nep-mac, nep-mon and nep-mst
Date: 2008-02
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Handle: RePEc:nzb:nzbdps:2008/02