Raw Materials in 2025: the Era of Metals

Yves Jégourel

No 2611, Policy briefs on Commodities & Energy from Policy Center for the New South

Abstract: On the global commodities markets, 2025 largely followed the trajectory set in 2024, with a record rise in precious metals prices against a backdrop of ever-increasing uncertainty, and base metals whose performance was once again largely determined by mining supply levels. On the softs side, cocoa and coffee retreated from past record prices, while the cereals market experienced relative price stability between 2024 and 2025, against a backdrop of abundant harvests worldwide. Oil and gas prices, for their part, have somewhat detached from geopolitical factors and returned to economic fundamentals. With supply plentiful, they ended 2025 on a downward trend, despite a sharp rebound at the end of January 2026 due to a cold start to winter. While commodities are known to be one of the most powerful barometers of the state of the world, this was not the case in 2025. In this paradoxical situation, oil prices hardly reacted to the major tensions in the Middle East, the intensification of the war in Ukraine, or the American intervention in Venezuela. Gold, on the other hand, reflected this. In a highly unstable economic and political environment, one thing is certain: the world has now fully entered the age of metals. In a race to secure supplies of strategic metals, the United States is now pulling out all the stops to try and catch up with China. Beyond the many crises and conflicts, it is the confirmation of the end of a rule-based international order and the return of spheres of influence that will make 2025 a pivotal year.

Date: 2026-03
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