A Distant Battlefield, Tangible Costs. The War on Iran's Toll on the Global South

Len Ishmael

No 2622, Policy briefs on Commodities & Energy from Policy Center for the New South

Abstract: The US-Israeli war on Iran, a 'little excursion' envisaged to be over within a matter of weeks, has entered its fourth month. Shock waves ripple across the globe. This war is just one in a series of recent crises which have fractured the international community, making the decades of the 2020's among the most disruptive in recent history. Each crisis compounds the deleterious effects of those which came before. The war in Iran is no exception. It abruptly stalled economic momentum for countries of the Global South struggling to regain conditions of stability within which prospects for growth might improve. Crippled by skyrocketing energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and debt crises, these countries face a harsh reality: for most, recovery is stunted, as inflation, recession and insolvency continue to spiral. Shifts in the balance of world power add to the sense of crisis. On multiple fronts, the world, as we know it, is changing. And while there is no clarity regarding the final contours of what comes next, it does seem certain that the status quo is no more; much trust has been lost; there will be no going back. The Liberal World Order, its rules, norms and principles founded on the idea of open markets, free trade and multilateral cooperation, engineered primarily by the United States and Western allies in the wake of World War II, is disintegrating. It is contested and undermined, not only by external actors, but also by its architects. The rules-based framework which provided the veneer of legality and blunted the force of unregulated raw power, is being dismantled. In the process, the vision of Post War idealism constructed around concepts of the common good and shared prosperity, is being replaced by more narrowly defined objectives anchored in national interests. The Western Alliance – once the pillar of the Post World War Order – lies among the casualties. In many Western countries, polls show that the level of citizens trust in their governments and institutions is at an all-time low. For many, the capitalist model has failed to safeguard their interests. The rise of populism underscores the steady drifting of societies away from the values of liberalism, towards narrow definitions of national identity and belonging.

Date: 2026-08
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