The World Cup Effect: A New Avenue of Thought in Search of an Effective De-confinement Strategy

Aomar Ibourk and Karim El Aynaoui

No 2027, Policy briefs on Economic Trends and Policies from Policy Center for the New South

Abstract: We explore a new avenue that could contribute to an effective de-confinement in the context of COVID-19. This phenomenon is known as the ‘World Cup Effect’. We first define this phenomenon and highlight its existence and its possible amplifying effect with regard to the spread of the pandemic, in light of the number of infected cases recorded at the pandemic’s peak, and the duration before reaching its highest level. Based on hypothetical scenarios in terms of the initial conditions at the lockdown exit, we show that under constant probability of infection, the World Cup Effect always results in a higher number of infected cases at peak (Δy>0), and in a shorter period before the peak is reached (Δx

Date: 2020-06
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