What 2025-2026 Tells Us About the Future of Global Energy

Rim Berahab

No 2602, Policy briefs on Economic Trends and Policies from Policy Center for the New South

Abstract: This policy brief examines what the 2025–2026 period reveals about the future of global energy risk and the energy transition. After the shocks of 2021–2023, 2025 brought broad price easing: oil and coal prices declined as supply growth outpaced demand, and the World Bank projects further declines in the global energy price index in 2026, offering short-term relief for energy-importing economies. The brief argues, however, that the macroeconomic relevance of energy entering 2026 is no longer defined primarily by commodity price levels, but by the distribution of risks and by the capacity of energy systems—grids, flexibility resources, supply chains, and investment frameworks—to absorb shocks and deliver reliable power. It identifies four structural forces shaping 2026 and beyond: artificial intelligence-related demand growth, grid congestion and resilience constraints, critical mineral concentration, and a capital-rich but execution-constrained investment environment. Taken together, these dynamics suggest that energy risk is increasingly shifting toward infrastructure and supply-chain bottlenecks, with widening asymmetries across regions, particularly for emerging and developing economies.

Date: 2026-01
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