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The role of China’s feed deficit in international grain markets

Marcel Adenäuer

No 172, OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers from OECD Publishing

Abstract: International grain prices experienced a sharp increase during the 2020/2021 marketing season, most likely due to the unprecedented increase of imported grains by China. What would be the possible impact on international grain markets if China remains a strong grain importer? The scenario developed to explore the impact of such a development shows that further increases in Chinese grain imports over the medium term could result in a 4% to 25% increase in agriculture commodity prices compared to what was projected in the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021-2030.

Keywords: African Swine Fever; Cereal trade; Commodity markets; Food price inflation; Food security (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C61 F17 Q11 Q17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-01-13
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-cna and nep-int
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