AI meets trade: Global linkages and the cross-country distribution of the gains from AI

Francesco Filippucci, Peter Gal, Katharina Laengle, Matthias Schief and Muhammed A. Yildirim

No 57, OECD Artificial Intelligence Papers from OECD Publishing

Abstract: This paper provides estimates of expected per capita real income gains from AI over the next decade in OECD and G20 economies. It relies on a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium model to incorporate the role of international trade and considers different scenarios regarding AI adoption paths and AI capabilities. In our central scenario, AI-driven productivity gains vary widely across countries and are expected to raise per capita real income growth by 0.1–0.95 percentage points annually. The model’s dynamics reveal a key insight: while countries lagging in AI adoption can gain from cheaper, AI-intensive imports generated by global diffusion, maintaining competitiveness - especially in highly AI-exposed sectors - ultimately requires strong domestic AI adoption. As a further channel, the paper quantifies the welfare effects generated by international knowledge spillovers boosting AI adoption of countries with relatively lower AI adoption.

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; International trade; Productivity; Technology adoption (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C6 E1 F1 O3 O4 O5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-03-18
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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