Unemployment and Labour Force Participation: Trends and Cycles

Jørgen Elmeskov and Karl Pichelmann

No 130, OECD Economics Department Working Papers from OECD Publishing

Abstract: This paper deals with trends and cycles of unemployment and labour-force participation. Empirical evidence on both trends and cyclical movements in unemployment and participation is presented. Some of the mechanisms behind the observed developments are also analysed, examining how well they fit into different theoretical frameworks. The implications for the assessment of labour market slack of the observed interplay between unemployment and participation are discussed. The paper ends by presenting some unexplained puzzles concerning the interplay between trends and cycles of unemployment and participation ... Cette tude est consacre l'analyse de l'volution du chmage et des taux d'activit, distinguant entre variations conjoncturelles et volution tendancielle. Des donnes empiriques sur ces deux types de variations y sont prsentes. Certains des mcanismes sous-jacents aux volutions constates sont aussi analyss, ainsi que la manire dont ils peuvent s'inscrire dans diffrents cadres thoriques. L'tude examine comment les intractions observes entre chmage et taux d'activit permettent d'interprter le sous-emploi des ressources sur le march du travail. Certains aspects difficiles comprendre en ce qui concerne les interactions entre volution conjoncturelle et tendancielle du chmage et des taux d'activit sont mentionns la fin de l'tude ...

Date: 1993-04-01
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