Assessing the impact of global demographic change on the German economy

Donal Smith, Robert Grundke, Marius Bickmann and Tony Huang

No 1839, OECD Economics Department Working Papers from OECD Publishing

Abstract: This study uses the OECD METRO model to analyse the consequences of global demographic change and migration on the German economy. The projected shrinking of the working age population in Germany and its main trading partners decreases GDP noticeably until 2030, and German manufacturing sectors experience a strong deterioration of their position on global export markets. However, if net migration inflows increase moderately compared to the average over 2010-2019, particularly regarding workers with Vocational Education and Training degrees, the negative effects of population ageing on the competitiveness of German manufacturing sectors can be reduced to a large extent.

Keywords: Computable general equilibrium model; Demographics; Germany; International Trade; METRO model; Migration; Sectoral economic effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C68 F10 F22 F47 J11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-08-14
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1839-en

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