Mapping drought severity in Mexico using high-resolution satellite data

Ilyes Boumahdi and Alberto González Pandiella

No 1862, OECD Economics Department Working Papers from OECD Publishing

Abstract: This paper analyses drought severity across Mexican regions between 2000 and 2025 using satellite-based indicators of vegetation health and surface moisture. Unlike traditional station-based measures, which depend on sparse weather data and often involve reporting delays, this approach directly captures how ecosystems respond to water stress across the entire territory. By combining these signals into a regional Normalised Difference Drought Index, the study provides a consistent, high-resolution measure of drought intensity for all Mexican states, identifying both the location and severity of water stress. The methodology enables detection of drought conditions at a finer spatial scale than conventional indicators, revealing substantial intra-state variation, such as the contrasts observed within Querétaro. The results show a persistent north–south divide: northern states, characterised by arid and semi-arid climates, experience more frequent and severe droughts, while southern regions retain higher levels of vegetation and moisture. From an economic and fiscal perspective, these patterns point to greater vulnerability in the north, where water-intensive agricultural, industrial, and energy sectors are concentrated. The findings underscore the value of near-real-time, spatially detailed monitoring to support Mexico’s climate adaptation policies and to inform the development of fiscal resilience mechanisms to mitigate climate-related risks.

Keywords: Drought monitoring; Mexico; Normalized difference drought index (NDDI); Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI); Normalized difference water index (NDWI); Remote sensing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C55 O13 Q54 R11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-04-01
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1862-en

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