The "Puzzle" of Wage Moderation in the 1980s

Pierre Poret

No 87, OECD Economics Department Working Papers from OECD Publishing

Abstract: In the 1980s, real consumption wages fell relative to labour efficiency in OECD countries, although there has been some pressure on wages recently. The persistent moderation of wages was due to labour-market slack, as well as rising non-wage labour costs and slower increases in output prices relative to consumer prices in some countries. It does not appear to reflect changes in wage behaviour. The analysis of time-series properties suggests that, typically, wages do not fully catch up to past losses. There is, furthermore, no strong evidence for instability of well-specified wage equations with the exception of France where stringent monetary policy since 1983 may have modified the formation of expectations ... Dans les annes 80, le pouvoir d'achat des salaires a baiss par rapport la productivit (corrige des effets de substitution capital-travail) dans les pays de l'OCDE malgr les rcentes pressions salariales. La modration persistante des salaires a t due aux dsquilibres de march du travail. Aussi bien qu' l'augmentation des cots indirects du travail et des prix de production croissants moins vite que le prix de la consommation dans certains pays. Elle ne semble pas reflter un changement dans le comportement des salaires au cours du cycle. L'analyse de sries temporelles longues suggre que, typiquement, les salaires ne rattrapent pas compltement les "pertes" passes. Il n 'y a pas non plus de preuves empiriques de linstabilit dquations de salaires bien spcifies, sauf pour a France o le durcissement de la politique montaire depuis 1983 aurait modifi la formation des anticipations.

Date: 1990-11-01
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